Following also starts a paper tail from now, when you are signed in: every call from then on, one virtual unit, graded as the call grades. Private, never counted.
Season 2From-zero season record (ended) · Oct 1 to Oct 31 · earlier calls (including Season 1) at the bottom · Season 1 record · Season 3 record
ProfitiEvery call risks 1 unit. A win at 40¢ pays +1.5 units, a loss is -1. This is the running total; a call closed early counts what it actually realized.
-4u
units · 4 priced calls
ROIiAverage profit per call, as a percent of the 1-unit stake. Staying positive over many calls is the skill signal; win rate alone is not. Beats the odds (4 calls): hit rate minus the hit rate the entry prices implied. Zero means the caller wins exactly as often as the market expected.
-100%
per call · vs odds needs 5 calls
RecordiWins and losses over graded calls. The sample size is always shown: a win rate only means something alongside it. The lower number is the 95% confidence floor on the win rate given the sample. It rises as the sample grows.
0–4
0% of 4 (at least 0%)
FormiMost recent graded calls, newest on the right. It reads the whole record, whatever the season, period or filter.
LLLLL
L10 streak
Sport
Record
Units
ROI
Graded
Other3
0–3
-3u
-100%
3
Crypto1
0–1
—
—
1 · under 3
Season equity curve
4 graded
Cumulative units over graded calls (flat 1u stake, a step per call; pending calls never move the curve).
Season record (10)
▸Elon Musk # tweets October 22 - October 24, 2026?yes for 65-89 @ 87¢Traded on JupiterMarket ↗ (opens in a new tab)-100%loss
“Elon Musk # tweets October 22 - October 24, 2026? taking yes for 65-89 @87c elon has not been tweeting much at these hours recently so under 12 tweets in next 3 hours looks good #NFA https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1218521”
▸Elon Musk # tweets October 8 - October 10, 2026?yes for 115-139 @ 18¢Traded on JupiterMarket ↗ (opens in a new tab)-100%loss
“Elon Musk # tweets October 8 - October 10, 2026? Taking yes for 115-139 @18c Been super erratic with his tweets lately and hitting some high numbers this seems very possible #NFA https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1137875”
▸What price will Ethereum hit in October?not counted: resolved after the season cutoff (Oct 31, 23:59 UTC)yes for 2700 @ 43¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)-100%loss
“What price will Ethereum hit in October? Taking yes for 2700 @43c Hoping the worst is behind us this month and for inverse 10/10 that leads to new monthly highs across the board #NFA https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1112206”
▸What price will Bitcoin hit in October?not counted: resolved after the season cutoff (Oct 31, 23:59 UTC)yes for 85000 @ 76¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)-100%loss
“What price will Bitcoin hit in October? Taking yes for 85000 @76c Saylor buying knocked the bullishness out of me briefly but still think BTC has a good chance of revisiting monthly high #NFA https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1112205”
▸What price will Bitcoin hit in October?not counted: resolved after the season cutoff (Oct 31, 23:59 UTC)yes for 87500 @ 77¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)-100%loss
“What price will Bitcoin hit in October? taking yes for 87500 @77c btc just closed an epic Q3 and its uptober so 87500 looks easily within reach this month #NFA https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1112205”
“Elon Musk # tweets October 3 - October 5, 2026? taking yes for 40-64 @69c Elon been tweeting lots recently but seems to be slowing down a little. At least 22 tweets in 1.5 days but under 46 looks good here #NFA https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1114455”
▸What price will Bitcoin hit in October?not counted: resolved after the season cutoff (Oct 31, 23:59 UTC)yes for 90000 @ 70¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)-100%loss
“What price will Bitcoin hit in October? Taking yes for 90000 @70c btc just closed an epic Q3 (one of its best ever) and 90k looks easily within reach this month #NFA https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1112205”
▸What price will Ethereum hit in October?not counted: resolved after the season cutoff (Oct 31, 23:59 UTC)yes for 2900 @ 69¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)-100%loss
“What price will Ethereum hit in October? Taking yes for 2900 @69c eth showing some strength and thinking this is more likely than current odds #NFA https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1112206”
▸What price will Ethereum hit in October?not counted: resolved after the season cutoff (Oct 31, 23:59 UTC)yes for 2800 @ 89¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)-100%loss
“What price will Ethereum hit in October? Taking yes for 2800 @89c currently not far off and looks more than 90% likely would be a sad month if it does not hit #NFA https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1112206”
“What price will Ethereum hit in October? Taking no for 2300 @82c Do not think eth will go any lower than last months lows at the very worst #NFA https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1112206”
“Elon Musk # tweets September 28 - September 30, 2026? Taking yes for 40-64 @85c Less than 9 tweets in 2 hours seems likely considering amount he has been tweeting recent mornings #NFA https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1086166”
“Elon Musk # tweets September 28 - September 30, 2026? Taking no for 65-89 @83c More than 9 tweets in next 3 hours seems unlikely considering amount he has been tweeting recent morings #NFA https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1086166”
“Elon Musk # of tweets in September 2026? Taking no for 920-959 @89c over 100 tweets in remaining time would take a tweet storm #NFA https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-984490”
Posted
Tue, 29 Sep 2026 05:05:07 UTC
Outcome
Closed early by the caller at 99.4¢, +10.4¢ on the 89¢ entry.
“Elon Musk # tweets September 22 - September 29, 2026? Taking yes for 180-199 @76c 19 tweets in next 12 hours seems very unlikely #NFA https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1046194”
“Elon Musk # tweets September 26 - September 28, 2026? Taking yes for 40-64 @73c Elon watching starship launch and not tweeting much for next 2 hours #NFA https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1074563”
“Elon Musk # tweets September 24 - September 26, 2026? Taking yes for 40-64 @88c Seems likely he will tweet more than 7 times and less than 32 in next 15hrs #NFA https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1059322”
“https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-759300 Elon Musk # tweets July 31 - August 7, 2026? 180-199 Taking yes @ 87c on average he does not tweet much at all during remaining hours for this market #NFA”
▸"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office (Lower Strikes)170-180m no @ 90¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)+11%win
“https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-803818 "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office (Lower Strikes) 170-180m taking no @ 90c from memory the estimates are often way over the outcome for these movie markets so hoping this is a safe one 🙏 #NFA”
