Following also starts a paper tail from now, when you are signed in: every call from then on, one virtual unit, graded as the call grades. Private, never counted.
Season 2From-zero season record (ended) · Oct 1 to Oct 31 · earlier calls (including Season 1) at the bottom · Season 1 record · Season 3 record
ProfitiEvery call risks 1 unit. A win at 40¢ pays +1.5 units, a loss is -1. This is the running total; a call closed early counts what it actually realized.
-0.61u
units · 4 priced calls
ROIiAverage profit per call, as a percent of the 1-unit stake. Staying positive over many calls is the skill signal; win rate alone is not. Beats the odds (4 calls): hit rate minus the hit rate the entry prices implied. Zero means the caller wins exactly as often as the market expected.
-15.3%
per call · vs odds needs 5 calls
RecordiWins and losses over graded calls. The sample size is always shown: a win rate only means something alongside it. The lower number is the 95% confidence floor on the win rate given the sample. It rises as the sample grows.
2–2
50% of 4 (at least 15%)
FormiMost recent graded calls, newest on the right. It reads the whole record, whatever the season, period or filter.
WW
W2 streak
Sport
Record
Units
ROI
Graded
Basketball2
1–1
—
—
2 · under 3
Esports2
1–1
—
—
2 · under 3
Season equity curve
4 graded
Cumulative units over graded calls (flat 1u stake, a step per call; pending calls never move the curve).
Combos (2)
A combo is one 1u bet that wins only if every leg wins (a void leg drops out). It counts in the totals above like any other call. Up to 15 combos count each week, and each one uses one of the 30 weekly calls.
▸LoL: Hanwha Life Esports v G2 Esports (BO3) - Worlds Group StageHanwha Life Esports (Game 1) @ 70¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)+43%win
“Pick: Hanwha Life Esports (Game 1)
Reasoning: LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs G2 Esports (BO3) - Worlds Swiss Stage
Hanwha Life won MSI 2026 and is Riot's top-ranked team, and it swept G2 3-0 at that tournament, so it knows how to beat this roster.
G2 is 1-2 after losing to Top Esports, and Fearless Draft rewards the deeper champion pool, which favours HLE over a best-of-three. I expect HLE to stay a…”
Posted
Fri, 30 Oct 2026 19:53:44 UTC
Outcome
Won: the market resolved for Hanwha Life Esports (Game 1).
“Pick: Timberwolves
Reasoning: NBA: Toronto Raptors vs Minnesota Timberwolves
Both teams are unbeaten, but Minnesota is at home and has the edge inside with Gobert protecting the rim.
Edwards and Towns also create matchup problems for Toronto, so I lean to the Wolves in a tight one. Not sure it's a comfortable win.
Picking Timberwolves
#nfa
#nfa (submitted on community.jup.ag)”
