Following also starts a paper tail from now, when you are signed in: every call from then on, one virtual unit, graded as the call grades. Private, never counted.
Season 2From-zero season record (ended) · Oct 1 to Oct 31 · earlier calls (including Season 1) at the bottom · Season 1 record · Season 3 record · 1 last-day call on a match after the close counts in Season 3
ProfitiEvery call risks 1 unit. A win at 40¢ pays +1.5 units, a loss is -1. This is the running total; a call closed early counts what it actually realized.
-2.7u
units · 18 priced calls
ROIiAverage profit per call, as a percent of the 1-unit stake. Staying positive over many calls is the skill signal; win rate alone is not. Beats the odds (18 calls): hit rate minus the hit rate the entry prices implied. Zero means the caller wins exactly as often as the market expected.
-15%
per call · +0 pts vs odds
RecordiWins and losses over graded calls. The sample size is always shown: a win rate only means something alongside it. The lower number is the 95% confidence floor on the win rate given the sample. It rises as the sample grows.
9–9
50% of 18 (at least 29%)
FormiMost recent graded calls, newest on the right. It reads the whole record, whatever the season, period or filter.
WLWWW
W3 streak
Sport
Record
Units
ROI
Graded
Basketball14
7–7
-3.61u
-25.8%
14
Esports4
2–2
+0.9u
+22.5%
4
Season equity curve
18 graded
Cumulative units over graded calls (flat 1u stake, a step per call; pending calls never move the curve).
Combos (8)
A combo is one 1u bet that wins only if every leg wins (a void leg drops out). It counts in the totals above like any other call. Up to 15 combos count each week, and each one uses one of the 30 weekly calls.
“Pick: LYON (Game 1)
Reasoning: LoL: LOS vs LYON (BO3) - Worlds Swiss Stage
LYON has taken Gen.G and Invictus Gaming to three games, and its two wins came against Team Secret Whales and Karmine Corp.
LOS has two straight 2-0 wins, but over Secret Whales and a Team Liquid side that was already winless, so LYON's schedule has been much harder. I lean LYON to reach the quarterfinals.
Picking LYON
#…”
▸LoL: Karmine Corp v Movistar KOI (BO3) - Worlds Group StageKarmine Corp (Game 1) @ 57¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)+75%win
“Pick: Karmine Corp (Game 1)
Reasoning: LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - Worlds Swiss Stage
Karmine Corp just swept CFO 2-0 to stay alive, while Movistar KOI was swept 0-2 by T1 in its last series.
Picking Karmine Corp
#nfa
#nfa (submitted on community.jup.ag)”
Posted
Sat, 31 Oct 2026 12:58:36 UTC
Outcome
Won: the market resolved for Karmine Corp (Game 1).
“Pick: Olympiacos B.C.
Reasoning: EuroLeague: Beşiktaş vs Olympiacos B.C.
Olympiacos B.C. is my pick because of its experience in high-pressure European games, disciplined half-court offense, and physical defense. Their ability to control rebounds, protect the paint, and create efficient scoring opportunities could be decisive against Beşiktaş. Beşiktaş can make this competitive with home-court en…”
“Pick: BC Dubai
Reasoning: EuroLeague: BC Dubai vs Paris Basketball
BC Dubai have the advantage heading into this matchup, with a stronger 5–2 record compared with Paris Basketball's 1–6. Dubai have won their last three games and are performing well offensively, averaging around 85 points per game while allowing fewer than 84. Paris have struggled defensively, conceding around 91 points per game, …”
“Pick: Rockets
Reasoning: NBA: Atlanta Hawks vs Houston Rockets
Houston is 3-0, has already beaten Atlanta once this week on the road, and now has home court.
The Rockets have won four straight meetings and score about 121 points per game, with Durant as the main scorer. I expect them to win again.
Picking Rockets
#nfa
#nfa (submitted on community.jup.ag)”
“Pick: Pacers
Reasoning: Brooklyn is 0-2 and plays its second game in two nights after facing Cleveland on Saturday.
Indiana has Haliburton, Siakam and Zubac in the starting five, and the Pacers are about 7-point favorites. Tired legs should show for the Nets late.
Picking Pacers
#nfa
#nfa (submitted on community.jup.ag)”
“Pick: Lakers
Reasoning: NBA: Los Angeles Lakers vs Utah Jazz
Utah has given up about 121 points per game and is missing Nurkic, while the Lakers won all four meetings last season.
Doncic and Kessler should have a big night against that defense. Not sure the Jazz can keep up for 48 minutes.
Picking Lakers
#nfa
#nfa (submitted on community.jup.ag)”
“NBA: Nets vs. Cavaliers Cleveland is at home and has the deeper, more proven roster. Brooklyn is still rebuilding and has a rookie out injured, so I don't see them stealing this one on the road. Picking Cavaliers #nfa https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1208440”
“NBA: Raptors vs. Wizards Toronto has the deeper and more experienced roster, while Washington is still young and inconsistent on defense. I trust the Raptors to be steadier in close moments. Picking Raptors #nfa https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1202604”
“https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1186925 Spurs to win #nfa Home court in San Antonio, and the matchup is close to a coin flip, so I'll take the home side.”
