Verified: message id, word-for-word text, market link and entry price all captured when the call was posted.
European Open: Andrea Guerrieri v Alex Michelsen
“Aight, since Tirante decided to fkme without lube, we going for this one, i don't know if Michel is already adapted to indoords but he had plenty time to it, but is this is Michelsen and he always like to struggle... so don't ape much please <:kekcat:1239862927398277180> ATP250 - European Open - Brussels 🇧🇪 Phase: Main Draw Risk: 🔴 Super High Risk Pick: 🇺🇸 A. Michelsen -1.5 @ 66c Reason: Michelsen’s edge is the first-serve points won and the level of recent opposition. He takes the ball early and the higher first-serve points won in ATP weeks are the numbers that decide service games. Guerrieri needs the return to show up and the points to stay long enough for his consistency to matter. Indoor hard rewards the player who holds serve more often against higher-level returns. Guerrieri arrives with recent qualifying wins and solid Challenger form. Michelsen arrives with the stronger recent ATP results, the higher first-serve points won in key weeks, and the experience edge against better opposition. The statistical gaps that matter most are on the first-serve points won and the overall level of competition. Michelsen’s edge is the ability to hold and win more serve points. Guerrieri can compete if the return shows up, but the profile favors Michelsen over a full match. *Bet responsibly. In sports betting, you lose more than you win in the long term.* #nfa https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1208052”
Verification details
- Message id
1561716191263850598open in Discord ↗ (opens in a new tab) (requires server membership)- Market
POLY-1214738jup.ag ↗ (opens in a new tab)- Capture note
- auto-captured: #nfa + jup.ag link + parsed side; event "European Open: Andrea Guerrieri vs Alex Michelsen"; boarded from the review queue by hand: mis-pasted link (Damm v Guerrieri qualifying, POLY-1208052); the text names Michelsen -1.5 in Brussels v Guerrieri. Edited to the right link and 60c at 13:20:54 UTC (58 min later, before the 13:40 start); priced at the original post at the stated 66c, so the late edit does not improve the entry; entry is the caller's stated 66¢; the order book at the post moment reads 59¢ (mid at post time (ask unrecoverable this long after the post)), which is not a buyable ask, so the stated figure stands (the price-history mid at the post moment, 59.0¢, is within tolerance of the claim); entry checked against the trade tape: nothing traded inside 20s of the post
- Graded via
- gamma POLY-1214738 "European Open: Andrea Guerrieri vs Alex Michelsen Set Handicap +/-1.5" outcome "Alex Michelsen" price 0.995 uma=proposed closed=false
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- Venue
- Jupiter Prediction Markets
- Starts
- Caller’s price
- Alex Michelsen -1.5 sets @ 66¢
- Resolution
- market’s official settlement