Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Gea v Jakub Mensik

“Okayyyy, im speedrunning to red 🤣 ATP MASTERS 1000 - Shanghai 🇨🇳 Phase: Main Draw Risk: 🔴 Super High Risk Pick: 🇫🇷 A. Gea @ 40c Reason: Mensik’s edge is the first serve and the short point. He takes it early, the first serve won is 78.5, the ace count, and the 1-3 rally band is his by far. The ace gap is the number that give free points. Gea needs the second ball to start his own finish. The problem for Gea is the hold he has put up, 81.5 against a first serve that just held clean. Gea’s edge is the return and the break, he takes it early, the return is 39.4, and the break is 27.8. The gaps on the longer bands are both HUGE the normal rally point 4-6 shots are both equal. His problem would be the serve + forehand (1-3 shots rally) which is Mensik's domain. But the 19.0 break rate is the number Mensik has to live with and only 48.6 for second serve is not good either. He cannot take Gea’s serve often enough to make up for the points he loses once the rally starts. The Shelton match went to two tiebreaks. It was not a break of this first serve. Gea takes it early and wins the return and the break. Mensik takes it early and wins the first serve and the short point. Shanghai sits the second serve up, which is the ball Gea already returns. Gea has the higher return, the higher break, the higher second-serve points won, and the higher dominance. The first serve is the number Mensik needs. If the return looks like the 39.4, Gea should win in three. If Mensik maintains the first serve like the 78.5 the way it did against Cerundolo, its a close game. *Bet responsibly. In sports betting, you lose more than you win in the long term.* #nfa https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1175341”

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