Verified: message id, word-for-word text, market link and entry price all captured when the call was posted.
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Learner Tien v Casper Ruud
“ATP MASTERS 1000 - Shanghai 🇨🇳 Phase: Main Draw Risk: 🔴 Super High Risk Game: 🇳🇴 C. Ruud x 🇺🇸 L. Tien Pick: Under 2.5 @ 67c Reason: Ruud’s edge is the first strike and the hold. He takes it early, the hold is 85.7, and the short point is the one they play most. Tien needs the second ball to start his own finish. The Bu match went to a tiebreak and the body is fine. The problem for Tien is the hold he has put up, 80.9, against a first ball that just held clean. Tien’s edge is the longer point and the return. He takes it early, the break is 23.7, and the 10+ band is the one he owns. The problem is the short point and the hold. 48.2 on 1-3 rally shots is the number the first ball attacks, and 80.9 percent of service games is the number Ruud waits for. The Svajda match was short on breaks. It was not a break of this first ball. The 22.9 break rate is the number Ruud has to live with. He cannot take Tien’s serve often enough to make up for the points he loses once the rally starts. *Bet responsibly. In sports betting, you lose more than you win in the long term.* #nfa https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1165451”
Verification details
- Message id
1559068089138548863open in Discord ↗ (opens in a new tab) (requires server membership)- Market
POLY-1165451jup.ag ↗ (opens in a new tab)- Capture note
- auto-captured: #nfa + jup.ag link + parsed side; event "Shanghai Rolex Masters: Learner Tien vs Casper Ruud"; entry is the caller's stated 67¢: this market traded at 42¢ 37s from the post, better odds than claimed, and a call never pays more than the caller stated; the order book read 67¢ at boarding, 25.0¢ away from what this market actually traded at 37s from the post (42¢), so the trade is the price; entry checked against the trade tape: nothing traded inside 20s of the post
- Graded via
- gamma POLY-1165451 "Shanghai Rolex Masters: Learner Tien vs Casper Ruud Total Sets: O/U 2.5" outcome "Under 2.5" price 0.9995 uma=proposed closed=false
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- Venue
- Jupiter Prediction Markets
- Starts
- Caller’s price
- Under 2.5 @ 67¢
- Resolution
- market’s official settlement