Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alexander Bublik v Brandon Nakashima

“ATP MASTERS 1000 - Shanghai 🇨🇳 Phase: Main Draw Risk: 🔴 Super High Risk Pick: 🇺🇸 B. Nakashima @ 54c Reason: Nakashima takes it early and finishes. The first serve is the point. He holds at 87.2 and the second serve holds at 51.1. Bublik takes it early and then stops it. He wants the short point so he can drop or change the height before the rally starts. The short point does not favor either man. The length that does is the 4-6 rally band, and that is Nakashima’s. The long one is flat. It does not decide the match. Bublik’s edge is the drop and the first ball. He takes it early, changes the height, and the ace rate is the higher one. The hole is the second serve, return and the 4-6 rally point. 49.7 on the second ball is the number Nakashima attacks, and he also only breaks 15.8 percent of the time. Against a server who holds at 87, that number means he almost never gets a break. He has to win by holding his own serve and ending the point short, or by landing the drop. The Berrettini line was about Nakashima’s last match. He was not broken. The match went the distance without Bublik’s return having a chance to be tested in that pattern. The 15.8 is the number Bublik has to live with if the first ball lands. It is not Nakashima’s problem. It is the return side of the matchup. *Bet responsibly. In sports betting, you lose more than you win in the long term.* #nfa https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1162950”

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