Verified: message id, word-for-word text, market link and entry price all captured when the call was posted.
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Rei Sakamoto v Andrey Rublev
“Tennis: Rei Sakamoto vs Andrey Rublev (BO3) Reasoning: Both models identically project a 24% win chance for Sakamoto and a 6-4, 6-3 victory for Rublev, underscoring Rublev's vast Masters 1000 pedigree and relentless baseline power. The market assigns Sakamoto slightly higher upset equity (28.5%), likely respecting Rublev's occasional emotional lapses and Sakamoto's explosive serve. However, the profound gap in return depth and tour-level consistency heavily favors the Russian veteran. Blending the market and models yields a 25.5% win chance for Sakamoto, with Rublev advancing cleanly. Match winner Andrey Rublev @71c #nfa #dyor https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1152121”
Verification details
- Message id
1557885547123576894open in Discord ↗ (opens in a new tab) (requires server membership)- Market
POLY-1152121jup.ag ↗ (opens in a new tab)- Capture note
- auto-captured: #nfa + jup.ag link + parsed side; event "Shanghai Rolex Masters: Rei Sakamoto vs Andrey Rublev"; entry 72¢ from the order-book ask at post time (caller stated 71¢); entry checked against the trade tape: nothing traded inside 20s of the post
- Graded via
- gamma POLY-1152121 "Shanghai Rolex Masters: Rei Sakamoto vs Andrey Rublev" outcome "Andrey Rublev" price 0.0005 uma=proposed closed=false
Think this is wrong (misattributed, wrong entry, wrong grade, duplicate, not a call)? Say so in #prediction-alpha-nfa (opens in a new tab) and tag AG with this call id (#4686), within 48 hours of grading. Corrections are published, never silent: see methodology.
- Venue
- Jupiter Prediction Markets
- Starts
- Ask at post
- Andrey Rublev @ 72¢
- Resolution
- market’s official settlement