ethanbigbrotherReturning: called in Season 1mostly one call: More than half of this view's profit comes from one call: LoL: FURIA Esports v MVK Esports (BO5) - Worlds Play-In, entry 13c, +6.69u
@ethanbigbrother · every call recorded, losses included
Showing LoL calls only: 22 counted. The weekly cap and qualification are judged on the whole season; a combo shows here when all its legs are LoL. Form covers every call.
ProfitiEvery call risks 1 unit. A win at 40¢ pays +1.5 units, a loss is -1. This is the running total; a call closed early counts what it actually realized.
+5.09u
units · 22 priced calls
ROIiAverage profit per call, as a percent of the 1-unit stake. Staying positive over many calls is the skill signal; win rate alone is not. Beats the odds (22 calls): hit rate minus the hit rate the entry prices implied. Zero means the caller wins exactly as often as the market expected.
+23.1%
per call · -5 pts vs odds
RecordiWins and losses over graded calls. The sample size is always shown: a win rate only means something alongside it. The lower number is the 95% confidence floor on the win rate given the sample. It rises as the sample grows.
8–14
36% of 22 (at least 20%)
FormiMost recent graded calls, newest on the right. It reads the whole record, whatever the season, period or filter.
LLLWW
W2 streak
Sport
Record
Units
ROI
Graded
Esports22
8–14
+5.09u
+23.1%
22
Season LoL equity curve
22 graded
Cumulative units over graded calls (flat 1u stake, a step per call; pending calls never move the curve).
“Pick: Gen.G (Game 1)
Reasoning: In League of Legends, a team does not need to win every lane to win the match. It needs to turn its advantages into dragons, towers, vision control and Baron pressure.
Gen.G showed strong decision-making, especially in how they moved around the map and handled teamfights.
#nfa (submitted on community.jup.ag)”
“Pick: G2 Esports
Reasoning: G2's first two Worlds games have shown some inconsistency. They lost to Dplus KIA and then needed a difficult comeback against LOS. they can get the job done again today.
#nfa (submitted on community.jup.ag)”
▸LoL: Hanwha Life Esports v Invictus Gaming (BO1) - Worlds Group StageHanwha Life Esports @ 32¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)-100%loss
“Pick: Hanwha Life Esports
Reasoning: HLE have are the reigning 2026 Mid-Season Invitational (MSI) champions.
HLE won MSI on July 12, defeating Bilibili Gaming 3–2 in the final. On the way, they also swept Team Secret Whales and G2 Esports 3–0.
#nfa (submitted on community.jup.ag)”
▸LoL: Invictus Gaming v Team Secret Whales (BO1) - Worlds Group StageTeam Secret Whales @ 46.3¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)-100%loss
“Pick: Team Secret Whales
Reasoning: After losing to LYON, TSW entered this match at 0–1. A win would bring them to 1–1 and restore their position in the Swiss Stage race. Another loss would put them at 0–2, leaving them with very little room for error.
Under the Worlds format, three wins are required to advance, while three losses result in elimination.
This is why the match matters so much: TSW …”
▸LoL: Top Esports v Anyone's Legend (BO1) - Worlds Group StageTop Esports @ 49¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)+104%win
“Esport LOL Stage: worlds BO1 Confidence: 🟠 mid risk (57%) reasoning: Top Esports lost to Hanwha Life Esports. That makes this a crucial recovery match: another defeat would leave TES at 0–2 in the Swiss Stage, putting their Worlds campaign under serious pressure. Forecast: TES 48c, https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1243550 #nfa”
“Esport LOL Stage: worlds BO1 Confidence: 🟠 mid risk (57%) reasoning: DK defeated Karmine Corp 3–0 in the EWC 2026 grand final in July. Their run also included a surprise victory over Bilibili Gaming in the quarterfinals. Forecast: Dplus Kia 32c, https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1214242 #nfa”
▸LoL: Anyone's Legend v Karmine Corp (BO1) - Worlds Group StageKarmine Corp @ 45¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)+122%win
“Esport LOL Stage: worlds BO1 Confidence: 🟠 mid risk (57%) reasoning: KC's strongest case is their recent competitive rhythm, resilience against Cloud9 and the chance to exploit a single-game format. Forecast: KC 45c, https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1214241 #nfa”
▸LoL: Bilibili Gaming v Movistar KOI (BO1) - Worlds Group StageBilibili Gaming @ 34¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)-100%loss
“Esport LOL Stage: worlds BO1 Confidence: 🟠 mid risk (57%) reasoning: One of the most useful take away in this matchup BLG vs MKOI is their previous meeting. At the 2026 Esports World Cup on July 15, BLG defeated MKOI 1–0 in the group stage. Forecast: bilibili gaming 33c, https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1214246 #nfa”
“Esport LOL Stage: worlds BO1 Confidence: 🟠 mid risk (57%) reasoning: Gen.G have recently beaten strong Korean opponent in a championship environment. If they reproduce that level of coordination, they have a convincing route to winning this opener. Forecast: Gen.G 49c, https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1214238 #nfa”
▸LoL: FURIA Esports v MVK Esports (BO5) - Worlds Play-InMVK Esports (Game 1) @ 13¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)+669%win
“Esport LOL Stage: worlds BO5 Confidence: 🟠 mid risk (75%) reasoning: MVK beat GAM Esports 3–2 in a recent series. That shows they can compete in a long, high-pressure match and find ways to close out games. They need that same resilience against FURIA, especially if the series goes to Game 4 or Game 5. Forecast: mvk game1 13c, https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1167258 #nfa”
Posted
Thu, 15 Oct 2026 23:36:41 UTC
Outcome
Won: the market resolved for MVK Esports (Game 1).
“Esport LOL Stage: worlds BO5 Confidence: 🟠 mid risk (75%) reasoning: KC's recent form listing shows eight wins in their last ten series, which is encouraging, although that record alone doesn't establish how they'll perform against Cloud9 today. is a double-elimination Play-In bracket, so a loss today would not automatically eliminate KC. It would send them down the lower bracket, where they…”
“Esport LOL Stage: worlds BO5 Confidence: 🟠 mid risk (75%) reasoning: KC's recent form listing shows eight wins in their last ten series, which is encouraging, although that record alone doesn't establish how they'll perform against Cloud9 today. is a double-elimination Play-In bracket, so a loss today would not automatically eliminate KC. It would send them down the lower bracket, where they…”
Posted
Thu, 15 Oct 2026 19:35:40 UTC
Outcome
Won: the market resolved for Karmine Corp (Game 2).
“Esport LOL Stage: worlds BO5 Confidence: 🟠 mid risk (75%) reasoning: KC's recent form listing shows eight wins in their last ten series, which is encouraging, although that record alone doesn't establish how they'll perform against Cloud9 today. is a double-elimination Play-In bracket, so a loss today would not automatically eliminate KC. It would send them down the lower bracket, where they…”
“Esport LOL Stage: worlds BO5 Confidence: 🟠 mid risk (75%) reasoning: KC's recent form listing shows eight wins in their last ten series, which is encouraging, although that record alone doesn't establish how they'll perform against Cloud9 today. is a double-elimination Play-In bracket, so a loss today would not automatically eliminate KC. It would send them down the lower bracket, where they…”
▸LoL: Team WE v HANJIN BRION (BO5) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational PlayoffsHANJIN BRION @ 24¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)-100%loss
“Esport LOL Stage: Demcia cup BO5 Confidence: 🟠 mid risk (75%) reasoning: BRION beat LGD Gaming 3–1 in the quarterfinals, winning three consecutive games after losing the opener. That series showed their ability to adjust and turn coordinated objective fights into victories. They need the same discipline in Game 5 Forecast: Brion 24c, https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1183023 #nfa”
“Esports LOL Stage: CBLOL BO5 Confidence: 🟠 high risk (80%) reasoning: More importantly, this isn't a matchup where LOUD is facing an opponent it hasn't figured out before.LOUD has already shown it can beat FURIA The recent head-to-head is competitive, LOUD at 18–9 across 27 meetings. Forecast: Loud game2 50c, https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1096383 #nfa”
“Esports LOL Stage: CBLOL BO5 Confidence: 🟠 high risk (80%) reasoning: LOUD has already shown it can beat FURIA The recent head-to-head is competitive, LOUD at 18–9 across 27 meetings. More importantly, this isn't a matchup where LOUD is facing an opponent it hasn't figured out before. loser goes home Forecast: Loud game1 23c, https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1096383 #nfa”
“Esports LOL Stage: CBLOL BO5 Confidence: 🟠 high risk (80%) reasoning: LOUD has already shown it can beat FURIA The recent head-to-head is competitive, LOUD at 18–9 across 27 meetings. More importantly, this isn't a matchup where LOUD is facing an opponent it hasn't figured out before. Forecast: Loud 50c, https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1096383 #nfa”
▸LoL: HANJIN BRION v JD Gaming (BO1) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group StageJD Gaming @ 35¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)-100%loss
“Esports LOL Stage: demacia cup global invitational BO1 Confidence: 🟠 low risk (45%) reasoning: JDG have a higher competitive ceiling, They recently beat Team WE 3–1 in the LPL playoffs and also beat EDward Gaming 2–1. That experience against high-level LPL opponents is a major advantage. Forecast: JD gaming 35c, https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1103271 #nfa”
▸LoL: LGD Gaming v FlyQuest (BO1) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group StageFlyQuest @ 33¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)-100%loss
“Esports LOL Stage: demacia cup global invitational BO1 Confidence: 🟠 high risk (80%) reasoning: FlyQuest can exploit LGD's preparation Because this is an international cross-region matchup, LGD can't rely entirely on familiar LPL opponents and tendencies. FLY can potentially bring different drafting priorities and tempo patterns. Forecast: fly quest 33c, https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1103…”
▸LoL: RED Canids v Natus Vincere (BO1) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group StageNatus Vincere @ 50¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)-100%loss
“Esports LOL Stage: demacia cup global invitational BO1 Confidence: 🟠 mid risk (75%) reasoning: There is no second game to recover from a poor start. Strong level-one preparation, lane priority and first-objective control can decide the entire match. Navi getting an opening win provides an important start to the tournament. . Forecast: Natus vincere 50c, https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1103…”
▸LoL: Solary v T1 Academy (BO5) - World Star Challengers Invitational PlayoffsT1 Academy @ 66¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)+52%win
“LOL Stage: world star challenger invitational BO5 Confidence: 🟠 mid risk (75%) reasoning: There is no next series after this one—the winner takes the inaugural WSCI title. Also, Just before WSCI, T1 Academy won the 2026 LCK Challengers League championship, sweeping KT Challengers 3–0 in the final. Forecast: T1 academy 66c, https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1108574 #nfa”
▸LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy v DN SOOPers Challengers (BO5) - LCK Challengers League PlayoffsNongshim Esports Academy @ 40¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)+150%win
“https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-914024 picking nongshim esport at win at 40c #nfa”
Posted
Mon, 31 Aug 2026 12:20:50 UTC
Outcome
Won: the market resolved for Nongshim Esports Academy.
