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← Open calls/Combo #89
LOSTPredictions · ComboCombo #89 · Season 2

Combo · 5 legs

21.98¢ · win pays +3.55u

Said · before resolutionOct 10, 2026 · timestamped in Discord

#NFA #Combo 🇮🇹 Napoli vs Frosinone Napoli have the home advantage and should have enough quality to make life difficult for Frosinone. Their best route to victory will be to control possession, create pressure in the final third and convert their chances. However, Frosinone could still threaten if Napoli leave spaces at the back. A home win is the preferred outcome, but a clean sheet is less certain. Pick: both team to score yes @62 https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1088276 🇫🇷 AS MONACO vs TOULOUSE Monaco head into this fixture with momentum and the quality to trouble Toulouse. Their attacking play should allow them to create promising opportunities, especially if they establish control early. Toulouse could make things difficult if they remain compact, but Monaco have the advantage in squad quality and home support. Picking Toulouse to win No @83 https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1089273 🇫🇷 Lorient vs Paris FC This is the tricky one…Paris FC have potential, but Lorient at home could make this a competitive contest. noting Lorient’s home situation and Paris FC’s difficult recent history at this ground. That makes me cautious about backing an outright away win. Pick: Lorient to win No @75 https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1089286 🇵🇹 MARÍTIMO vs FC PORTO FC Porto have the stronger squad and should have enough quality to control this encounter. Their attacking options and midfield quality give them an advantage, while Marítimo will need a disciplined defensive performance to contain the visitors. Porto are expected to create the better chances, and if they take control early, a comfortable away victory is possible. Picking Maritimo to win No @78 https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1086523 Real Madrid return to the Despite the visitors’ threat, I expect Madrid’s home advantage and individual quality to make the difference. Pick: Real Madrid win @72 https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1089927

connection23.05.2023 in #prediction-alpha-nfaOriginal message ↗ (opens in a new tab)
Entered · 5 legseach leg at the order-book ask when posted, or the caller’s stated price if that is worse
  1. Leg 1Lost
    Both Teams to Score @ 62¢
    SSC Napoli v Frosinone Calcio - More Markets
    Starts
    Entry
    62¢ (the price stated in the message, at or above the ask: the worse price stands)
    How it was priced
    leg 1: event "SSC Napoli vs. Frosinone Calcio - More Markets"; "Score" is on this fixture's companion event "SSC Napoli vs. Frosinone Calcio - More Markets" (POLY-1089698); entry is the caller's stated 62¢; the order book at the post moment reads 61.5¢ (mid at post time (ask unrecoverable this long after the post)), which is not a buyable ask, so the stated figure stands (the price-history mid at the post moment, 61.5¢, is within tolerance of the claim); entry checked against the trade tape: nothing traded inside 20s of the post
    Result
    lost · Oct 10, 2026
    Verification details
    gamma POLY-1089698 "Both Teams to Score" outcome "Yes" price 0.0005 uma=proposed closed=false; resolution confirmed
    Open the market ↗ (opens in a new tab)
  2. Leg 2Won
    No: Toulouse FC @ 83¢
    AS Monaco FC v Toulouse FC
    Starts
    Entry
    83¢ (the price stated in the message, at or above the ask: the worse price stands)
    How it was priced
    leg 2: event "AS Monaco FC vs. Toulouse FC"; entry is the caller's stated 83¢; the order book at the post moment reads 82.5¢ (mid at post time (ask unrecoverable this long after the post)), which is not a buyable ask, so the stated figure stands (the price-history mid at the post moment, 82.5¢, is within tolerance of the claim); entry checked against the trade tape: nothing traded inside 20s of the post
    Result
    won · Oct 10, 2026
    Verification details
    gamma POLY-1089273 "Toulouse FC" outcome "No" price 0.9995 uma=proposed closed=false; resolution confirmed
    Open the market ↗ (opens in a new tab)
  3. Leg 3 · decided the comboLost
    No: FC Lorient @ 75¢
    FC Lorient v Paris FC
    Starts
    Entry
    75¢ (the price stated in the message, at or above the ask: the worse price stands)
    How it was priced
    leg 3: event "FC Lorient vs. Paris FC"; entry is the caller's stated 75¢; the order book at the post moment reads 74.5¢ (mid at post time (ask unrecoverable this long after the post)), which is not a buyable ask, so the stated figure stands (the price-history mid at the post moment, 74.5¢, is within tolerance of the claim); entry checked against the trade tape: nothing traded inside 20s of the post
    Result
    lost · Oct 10, 2026
    Verification details
    gamma POLY-1089286 "FC Lorient" outcome "No" price 0.005 uma=proposed closed=false; resolution confirmed
    Open the market ↗ (opens in a new tab)
  4. Leg 4Won
    No: CS Marítimo @ 78¢
    CS Marítimo v FC Porto
    Starts
    Entry
    78¢ (the price stated in the message, at or above the ask: the worse price stands)
    How it was priced
    leg 4: event "CS Marítimo vs. FC Porto"; entry is the caller's stated 78¢: this market traded at 73¢ 32s from the post, better odds than claimed, and a call never pays more than the caller stated; entry checked against the trade tape: nothing traded inside 20s of the post
    Result
    won · Oct 10, 2026
    Verification details
    gamma POLY-1086523 "CS Marítimo" outcome "No" price 0.9995 uma=proposed closed=false; resolution confirmed
    Open the market ↗ (opens in a new tab)
  5. Leg 5Won
    Real Madrid CF @ 73¢
    Real Madrid CF v Villarreal CF
    Starts
    Entry
    73¢ (the message said 72¢, below the ask: the worse price stands)
    How it was priced
    leg 5: event "Real Madrid CF vs. Villarreal CF"; entry 73¢ from the trade tape: no buyable ask could be read, and this market traded at 73¢ 26s from the post (caller stated 72¢); entry checked against the trade tape: nothing traded inside 20s of the post
    Result
    won · Oct 10, 2026
    Verification details
    gamma POLY-1089927 "Real Madrid CF" outcome "Yes" price 0.9995 uma=proposed closed=false; resolution confirmed
    Open the market ↗ (opens in a new tab)
21.98¢

62¢ × 83¢ × 75¢ × 78¢ × 73¢ = 21.98¢; a win pays 100 ÷ 21.98 − 1 = +3.55u at a flat 1-unit stake, and a loss is −1u.

ResolvedOct 10, 2026 · market settlement
Lost on leg 3: the remaining legs no longer matter. Settled by the markets’ official resolution.
-1.00uat a 1-unit stake
Verification details
lost on leg 3 ("FC Lorient No", FC Lorient v Paris FC): gamma POLY-1089286 "FC Lorient" outcome "No" price 0.005 uma=proposed closed=false; the remaining legs no longer matter

Counts toward Season 2: combo 1 of 15 in week 2, one of the caller’s 30 calls that week.

connection23.05.2023
rank #27 · season 2
Profile →
-2.01u
profit
61–37
record
98
graded
form · last 10
How a combo scores
  • One 1u position on 2 to 6 legs, each on a different fixture.
  • Each leg is priced at the order-book ask when posted, or at the price the caller wrote if that is worse, and must be 10¢ to 90¢. The combo price is the legs multiplied together and must be 10¢ to 90¢.
  • A win pays 100 ÷ price − 1; a loss is −1u. It loses as soon as a leg loses and wins when the last leg wins.
  • A void leg drops out and the combo is repriced; with one leg left it grades as that single. Every leg void is 0u.
  • Up to 15 combos count per caller per season week, each one of the 30 weekly calls and one toward qualifying. Combos cannot be closed early.