LOSTPredictions · ComboCombo #82 · Season 2

Combo · 4 legs

25.34¢ · win pays +2.95u

Said · before resolutionOct 10, 2026 · timestamped in Discord

1. Arsenal FC vs. Leeds United FC. https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1089269 I’m picking "Yes" for Arsenal @ 69¢. Arsenal will be hosting the match against Leeds; historically, they remain undefeated when playing on their home turf. 2. FC Augsburg vs. FC Bayern Munich. https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1089281 I’m picking "Yes" on the Bayern -1.5 spread @ 68¢. This isn't a very balanced matchup, which is why I’m choosing the -1.5 spread for Bayern. 3. Real Madrid CF vs. Villarreal CF. https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1089927 I’m picking "Yes" for Real Madrid @ 71¢. Real Madrid is playing away in this match, but given their championship mentality, playing away isn't an issue for them. 4. FC Barcelona vs. Getafe CF. https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1089925 I’m picking "Yes" for Barcelona with a -1.5 spread @ 75¢. To me, Barcelona is the king of all leagues right now; this giant club sits at the top of both La Liga and the UCL. There is no other choice but to pick Barcelona to win. #NFA #COMBO

crypto_strategy in #prediction-alpha-nfaOriginal message ↗

Entered · 4 legseach leg at the order-book ask when posted, or the caller’s stated price if that is worse

Leg 1Won
Arsenal FC @ 69¢
Arsenal FC v Leeds United FC
Starts
Oct 10, 11:30 UTC
Entry
69¢ (the price stated in the message, at or above the ask: the worse price stands)
How it was priced
leg 1: event "Arsenal FC vs. Leeds United FC"; hindsight guard cleared by the order book at post time (69.5¢, 12s old); entry is the caller's stated 69¢; the order book at the post moment reads 69.5¢ (mid at post time (ask unrecoverable this long after the post)), which is not a buyable ask, so the stated figure stands (the price-history mid at the post moment, 69.5¢, is within tolerance of the claim)
Result
won · Oct 10, 2026
Verification details
gamma POLY-1089269 "Arsenal FC" outcome "Yes" price 1 uma=resolved closed=true
Open the market ↗ (opens in a new tab)
Leg 2 · decided the comboLost
FC Bayern München -1.5 @ 68¢
FC Augsburg v FC Bayern München - More Markets
Starts
Oct 10, 13:30 UTC
Entry
68¢ (the price stated in the message, at or above the ask: the worse price stands)
How it was priced
leg 2: event "FC Augsburg vs. FC Bayern München - More Markets"; "Bayern -1.5" is on this fixture's companion event "FC Augsburg vs. FC Bayern München - More Markets" (POLY-1089719); entry is the caller's stated 68¢; the order book at the post moment reads 68.5¢ (mid at post time (ask unrecoverable this long after the post)), which is not a buyable ask, so the stated figure stands (the price-history mid at the post moment, 68.5¢, is within tolerance of the claim); entry checked against the trade tape: nothing traded inside 20s of the post
Result
lost · Oct 10, 2026
Verification details
gamma POLY-1089719 "FC Bayern München (-1.5)" outcome "FC Bayern München" price 0.0095 uma=proposed closed=false; resolution confirmed
Open the market ↗ (opens in a new tab)
Leg 3Won
Real Madrid CF @ 72¢
Real Madrid CF v Villarreal CF
Traded on Jupiter
Starts
Oct 10, 19:00 UTC
Entry
72¢ (the message said 71¢, below the ask: the worse price stands)
How it was priced
leg 3: event "Real Madrid CF vs. Villarreal CF"; entry 72¢ from the trade tape: no buyable ask could be read, and this market traded at 72¢ 40s from the post (caller stated 71¢); entry checked against the trade tape: nothing traded inside 20s of the post
Result
won · Oct 10, 2026
Verification details
gamma POLY-1089927 "Real Madrid CF" outcome "Yes" price 0.9995 uma=proposed closed=false; resolution confirmed
Open the market ↗ (opens in a new tab)
Leg 4Won
FC Barcelona -1.5 @ 75¢
FC Barcelona v Getafe CF - More Markets
Starts
Oct 10, 16:30 UTC
Entry
75¢ (the price stated in the message, at or above the ask: the worse price stands)
How it was priced
leg 4: event "FC Barcelona vs. Getafe CF - More Markets"; "Barcelona -1.5" is on this fixture's companion event "FC Barcelona vs. Getafe CF - More Markets" (POLY-1090160); entry is the caller's stated 75¢; the order book at the post moment reads 74.5¢ (mid at post time (ask unrecoverable this long after the post)), which is not a buyable ask, so the stated figure stands (the price-history mid at the post moment, 74.5¢, is within tolerance of the claim); entry checked against the trade tape: nothing traded inside 20s of the post
Result
won · Oct 10, 2026
Verification details
gamma POLY-1090160 "FC Barcelona (-1.5)" outcome "FC Barcelona" price 0.9995 uma=proposed closed=false; resolution confirmed
Open the market ↗ (opens in a new tab)

25.34¢

69¢ × 68¢ × 72¢ × 75¢ = 25.34¢; a win pays 100 ÷ 25.34 − 1 = +2.95u at a flat 1-unit stake, and a loss is −1u.

ResolvedOct 10, 2026 · market settlement

Lost on leg 2: the remaining legs no longer matter. Settled by the markets’ official resolution.

-1.00uat a 1-unit stake

Verification details

lost on leg 2 ("FC Bayern München -1.5", FC Augsburg v FC Bayern München - More Markets): gamma POLY-1089719 "FC Bayern München (-1.5)" outcome "FC Bayern München" price 0.0095 uma=proposed closed=false; the remaining legs no longer matter

Counts toward Season 2: combo 5 of 15 in week 2, one of the caller’s 30 calls that week.

crypto_strategy

rank #6 · season 2

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+9.72u

profit

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record

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How a combo scores

One 1u position on 2 to 6 legs, each on a different fixture.
Each leg is priced at the order-book ask when posted, or at the price the caller wrote if that is worse, and must be 10¢ to 90¢. The combo price is the legs multiplied together and must be 10¢ to 90¢.
A win pays 100 ÷ price − 1; a loss is −1u. It loses as soon as a leg loses and wins when the last leg wins.
A void leg drops out and the combo is repriced; with one leg left it grades as that single. Every leg void is 0u.
Up to 15 combos count per caller per season week, each one of the 30 weekly calls and one toward qualifying. Combos cannot be closed early.

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