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← Open calls/Combo #464
LOSTPredictions · ComboCombo #464 · Season 2

Combo · 4 legs

34.98¢ · win pays +1.86u

Said · before resolutionOct 26, 2026 · timestamped in Discord

1. Erste Bank Open: Tomas Machac v Alex de Minaur: Alex de Minaur 2. Erste Bank Open: Jakub Mensik v Lukas Neumayer: Jakub Mensik 3. Swiss Indoors Basel: Stan Wawrinka v Jiri Lehecka: Jiri Lehecka 4. Erste Bank Open: Alexander Zverev v Martin Landaluce: Alexander Zverev -1.5 sets Reasoning: Don't ape, im washed! Risk: 🔴 Super Degen High Risk 1. Minaur’s edge is the return and the break. He takes the ball early and the 39.1% return points won and 25.0% break are the numbers that decide service games. Machac needs the first serve to land at the higher rate he has shown and the points to stay short enough that his slightly better first-serve percentage matters. 2. Mensik arrives with the bigger serve, the higher unreturned rate, and the better short-to-middle rally numbers. Neumayer arrives with a slightly better profile in the longer exchanges and solid return numbers at Challenger level. If Mensik’s first serve looks like the higher weeks from his last 10 tournaments, he should control the majority of his service games and limit Neumayer’s opportunities to extend points. 3. Lehecka arrives with the higher hold percentage, the better return and break profile, and the higher dominance ratio. Wawrinka arrives with experience and a still-solid first serve. Indoor hard rewards the cleaner hold and the better returner. If Lehecka’s first serve looks like the last-52 sample, he should control the majority of his service games and create enough break opportunities to come through. 4. Zverev’s edge is the serve and the hold. He takes the ball early and the 70.5% serve points won, 88.4% hold, and 12.3% ace rate are the numbers that decide service games. Landaluce needs the first serve to sit and the points to stretch into the 7-9 shot window for his numbers to show. #nfa (submitted on community.jup.ag)

snk on community.jup.ag
Entered · 4 legseach leg at the order-book ask when posted, or the caller’s stated price if that is worse
  1. Leg 1Won
    Alex de Minaur @ 70¢
    Erste Bank Open: Tomas Machac v Alex de Minaur
    Starts
    Entry
    70¢
    How it was priced
    leg 1: event "Erste Bank Open: Tomas Machac vs Alex de Minaur"; submitted on community.jup.ag; entry 70¢ from the order-book ask at post time; entry checked against the trade tape: the tape paid 70¢ 16s from the post, within a cent of the entry
    Result
    won · Oct 26, 2026
    Verification details
    gamma POLY-1255868 "Erste Bank Open: Tomas Machac vs Alex de Minaur" outcome "Alex de Minaur" price 0.9995 uma=proposed closed=false; resolution confirmed
    Open the market ↗ (opens in a new tab)
  2. Leg 2Won
    Jakub Mensik @ 86¢
    Erste Bank Open: Jakub Mensik v Lukas Neumayer
    Starts
    Entry
    86¢
    How it was priced
    leg 2: event "Erste Bank Open: Jakub Mensik vs Lukas Neumayer"; submitted on community.jup.ag; entry 86¢ from the order-book ask at post time; entry checked against the trade tape: nothing traded inside 20s of the post
    Result
    won · Oct 26, 2026
    Verification details
    gamma POLY-1255869 "Erste Bank Open: Jakub Mensik vs Lukas Neumayer" outcome "Jakub Mensik" price 0.9995 uma=proposed closed=false; resolution confirmed
    Open the market ↗ (opens in a new tab)
  3. Leg 3Won
    Jiri Lehecka @ 83¢
    Swiss Indoors Basel: Stan Wawrinka v Jiri Lehecka
    Starts
    Entry
    83¢
    How it was priced
    leg 3: event "Swiss Indoors Basel: Stan Wawrinka vs Jiri Lehecka"; submitted on community.jup.ag; entry 83¢ from the order-book ask at post time; entry checked against the trade tape: nothing traded inside 20s of the post
    Result
    won · Oct 27, 2026
    Verification details
    gamma POLY-1250704 "Swiss Indoors Basel: Stan Wawrinka vs Jiri Lehecka" outcome "Jiri Lehecka" price 0.9995 uma=proposed closed=false; resolution confirmed
    Open the market ↗ (opens in a new tab)
  4. Leg 4 · decided the comboLost
    Alexander Zverev -1.5 sets @ 70¢
    Erste Bank Open: Alexander Zverev v Martin Landaluce
    Starts
    Entry
    70¢
    How it was priced
    leg 4: event "Erste Bank Open: Alexander Zverev vs Martin Landaluce"; submitted on community.jup.ag; entry 70¢ from the order-book ask at post time; entry checked against the trade tape: nothing traded inside 20s of the post
    Result
    lost · Oct 27, 2026
    Verification details
    gamma POLY-1250669 "Erste Bank Open: Alexander Zverev vs Martin Landaluce Set Handicap +/-1.5" outcome "Alexander Zverev" price 0.0005 uma=proposed closed=false; resolution confirmed
    Open the market ↗ (opens in a new tab)
34.98¢

70¢ × 86¢ × 83¢ × 70¢ = 34.98¢; a win pays 100 ÷ 34.98 − 1 = +1.86u at a flat 1-unit stake, and a loss is −1u.

ResolvedOct 27, 2026 · market settlement
Lost on leg 4: the remaining legs no longer matter. Settled by the markets’ official resolution.
-1.00uat a 1-unit stake
Verification details
lost on leg 4 ("Alexander Zverev -1.5 sets", Erste Bank Open: Alexander Zverev v Martin Landaluce): gamma POLY-1250669 "Erste Bank Open: Alexander Zverev vs Martin Landaluce Set Handicap +/-1.5" outcome "Alexander Zverev" price 0.0005 uma=proposed closed=false; the remaining legs no longer matter

Counts toward Season 2: combo 11 of 15 in week 4, one of the caller’s 30 calls that week.

snk
rank #26 · season 2
Profile →
-1.99u
profit
59–77
record
136
graded
form · last 10
How a combo scores
  • One 1u position on 2 to 6 legs, each on a different fixture.
  • Each leg is priced at the order-book ask when posted, or at the price the caller wrote if that is worse, and must be 10¢ to 90¢. The combo price is the legs multiplied together and must be 10¢ to 90¢.
  • A win pays 100 ÷ price − 1; a loss is −1u. It loses as soon as a leg loses and wins when the last leg wins.
  • A void leg drops out and the combo is repriced; with one leg left it grades as that single. Every leg void is 0u.
  • Up to 15 combos count per caller per season week, each one of the 30 weekly calls and one toward qualifying. Combos cannot be closed early.