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← Open calls/Combo #420
LOSTPredictions · ComboCombo #420 · Season 2

Combo · 4 legs

13.61¢ · win pays +6.35u

Said · before resolutionOct 25, 2026 · timestamped in Discord

1. Dota 2: Team Liquid v OG (BO3) - PARI Universe Group A: Team Liquid 2. Dota 2: Team Spirit v Astra Invicta (BO3) - PARI Universe Group B: Team Spirit -1.5 games 3. Dota 2: PARIVISION v BetBoom Team (BO3) - PARI Universe Group B: PARIVISION -1.5 games 4. Dota 2: Team Yandex v 1win (BO3) - PARI Universe Group A: Team Yandex -1.5 games Reasoning: Liquid ML is my thinner, lineup-dependent leg. With m1CKe and Malr1ne, Liquid swept 1win; m1CKe totalled 29/3/23 across those two maps. Their GamerLegion loss used rincyq instead, so I want m1CKe confirmed before backing this leg. Spirit -1.5 is backed by four straight map wins, including a sweep of LEGION, who then beat Astra 2-1. Yatoro and Larl combined for 94 kills and only 19 deaths across Spirit’s four maps. Astra’s sweep of BetBoom is the countercase: they can punish mistakes. PARIVISION -1.5 has a useful common-opponent comparison: PARI swept Astra, while Astra swept BetBoom. PARI’s same five is 4-0 in maps; Satanic has 46 kills against 13 deaths. BetBoom is 0-4. Yandex -1.5 has the clearest form gap: 4-0 versus 1win’s 0-6. ATF returned for the OG sweep, and 1win still lost 0-2 to GamerLegion with bzm back. The slump therefore extends beyond their emergency stand-in series. #nfa (submitted on community.jup.ag)

.magsasaka on community.jup.ag
Entered · 4 legseach leg at the order-book ask when posted, or the caller’s stated price if that is worse
  1. Leg 1 · decided the comboLost
    Team Liquid @ 57¢
    Dota 2: Team Liquid v OG (BO3) - PARI Universe Group A
    Starts
    Entry
    57¢
    How it was priced
    leg 1: event "Dota 2: Team Liquid vs OG (BO3) - PARI Universe Group A"; submitted on community.jup.ag; entry 57¢ from the order-book ask at post time; entry checked against the trade tape: nothing traded inside 20s of the post
    Result
    lost · Oct 25, 2026
    Verification details
    gamma POLY-1241322 "Match Winner" outcome "Team Liquid" price 0.005 uma=proposed closed=false; resolution confirmed
    Open the market ↗ (opens in a new tab)
  2. Leg 2Won
    Team Spirit -1.5 games @ 54¢
    Dota 2: Team Spirit v Astra Invicta (BO3) - PARI Universe Group B
    Starts
    Entry
    54¢
    How it was priced
    leg 2: event "Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Astra Invicta (BO3) - PARI Universe Group B"; submitted on community.jup.ag; entry 54¢ from the order-book ask at post time; entry checked against the trade tape: nothing traded inside 20s of the post
    Result
    won · Oct 25, 2026
    Verification details
    gamma POLY-1241324 "Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Astra Invicta (+1.5)" outcome "Team Spirit" price 0.9995 uma=proposed closed=false; resolution confirmed
    Open the market ↗ (opens in a new tab)
  3. Leg 3Won
    PARIVISION -1.5 games @ 67¢
    Dota 2: PARIVISION v BetBoom Team (BO3) - PARI Universe Group B
    Starts
    Entry
    67¢
    How it was priced
    leg 3: event "Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PARI Universe Group B"; submitted on community.jup.ag; entry 67¢ from the order-book ask at post time; entry checked against the trade tape: nothing traded inside 20s of the post
    Result
    won · Oct 25, 2026
    Verification details
    gamma POLY-1241325 "Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5)" outcome "PARIVISION" price 0.9995 uma=proposed closed=false; resolution confirmed
    Open the market ↗ (opens in a new tab)
  4. Leg 4Won
    Team Yandex -1.5 games @ 66¢
    Dota 2: Team Yandex v 1win (BO3) - PARI Universe Group A
    Starts
    Entry
    66¢
    How it was priced
    leg 4: event "Dota 2: Team Yandex vs 1win (BO3) - PARI Universe Group A"; submitted on community.jup.ag; entry 66¢ from the order-book ask at post time; entry checked against the trade tape: nothing traded inside 20s of the post
    Result
    won · Oct 25, 2026
    Verification details
    gamma POLY-1241323 "Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs 1win (+1.5)" outcome "Team Yandex" price 0.9995 uma=proposed closed=false; resolution confirmed
    Open the market ↗ (opens in a new tab)
13.61¢

57¢ × 54¢ × 67¢ × 66¢ = 13.61¢; a win pays 100 ÷ 13.61 − 1 = +6.35u at a flat 1-unit stake, and a loss is −1u.

ResolvedOct 25, 2026 · market settlement
Lost on leg 1: the remaining legs no longer matter. Settled by the markets’ official resolution.
-1.00uat a 1-unit stake
Verification details
lost on leg 1 ("Team Liquid", Dota 2: Team Liquid v OG (BO3) - PARI Universe Group A): gamma POLY-1241322 "Match Winner" outcome "Team Liquid" price 0.005 uma=proposed closed=false; the remaining legs no longer matter

Counts toward Season 2: combo 1 of 15 in week 4, one of the caller’s 30 calls that week.

.magsasaka
rank #36 · season 2
Profile →
-5.46u
profit
2–8
record
10
graded
form · last 10
How a combo scores
  • One 1u position on 2 to 6 legs, each on a different fixture.
  • Each leg is priced at the order-book ask when posted, or at the price the caller wrote if that is worse, and must be 10¢ to 90¢. The combo price is the legs multiplied together and must be 10¢ to 90¢.
  • A win pays 100 ÷ price − 1; a loss is −1u. It loses as soon as a leg loses and wins when the last leg wins.
  • A void leg drops out and the combo is repriced; with one leg left it grades as that single. Every leg void is 0u.
  • Up to 15 combos count per caller per season week, each one of the 30 weekly calls and one toward qualifying. Combos cannot be closed early.
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