Skip to content
← Open calls/Combo #317
LOSTPredictions · ComboCombo #317 · Season 2

Combo · 2 legs

11.02¢ · win pays +8.07u

Said · before resolutionOct 22, 2026 · timestamped in Discord

1. https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1180837 240-259 Yes Considering the avg tweets and around a day left this seems more reasonable range. 2. https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1218521 65-89 Yes Yet to begin, want to try this combo, with avg around 35 tweets per day this is a good range as musk is usually active #combo #nfa

_varsha7 in #prediction-alpha-nfaOriginal message ↗ (opens in a new tab)
Entered · 2 legseach leg at the order-book ask when posted, or the caller’s stated price if that is worse
  1. Leg 1 · decided the comboLost
    240-259 @ 29¢
    Elon Musk # tweets October 16 - October 23, 2026?
    Starts
    Entry
    29¢
    How it was priced
    leg 1: event "Elon Musk # tweets October 16 - October 23, 2026?"; entry 29¢ from the order-book ask at post time; entry checked against the trade tape: the tape paid 29¢ 20s from the post, within a cent of the entry
    Result
    lost · Oct 23, 2026
    Verification details
    gamma POLY-1180837 "240-259" outcome "Yes" price 0.0005 uma=proposed closed=false; resolution confirmed
    Open the market ↗ (opens in a new tab)
  2. Leg 2Lost
    65-89 @ 38¢
    Elon Musk # tweets October 22 - October 24, 2026?
    Starts
    Entry
    38¢
    How it was priced
    leg 2: event "Elon Musk # tweets October 22 - October 24, 2026?"; entry 38¢ from the order-book ask at post time; entry checked against the trade tape: nothing traded inside 20s of the post
    Result
    lost · Oct 24, 2026
    Verification details
    gamma POLY-1218521 "65-89" outcome "Yes" price 0.0005 uma=proposed closed=false; resolution confirmed
    Open the market ↗ (opens in a new tab)
11.02¢

29¢ × 38¢ = 11.02¢; a win pays 100 ÷ 11.02 − 1 = +8.07u at a flat 1-unit stake, and a loss is −1u.

ResolvedOct 23, 2026 · market settlement
Lost on leg 1: the remaining legs no longer matter. Settled by the markets’ official resolution.
-1.00uat a 1-unit stake
Verification details
lost on leg 1 ("240-259 yes", Elon Musk # tweets October 16 - October 23, 2026?): gamma POLY-1180837 "240-259" outcome "Yes" price 0.0005 uma=proposed closed=false; the remaining legs no longer matter

Counts toward Season 2: combo 2 of 15 in week 4, one of the caller’s 30 calls that week.

_varsha7
rank #10 · season 2
Profile →
+6.72u
profit
61–96
record
157
graded
form · last 10
How a combo scores
  • One 1u position on 2 to 6 legs, each on a different fixture.
  • Each leg is priced at the order-book ask when posted, or at the price the caller wrote if that is worse, and must be 10¢ to 90¢. The combo price is the legs multiplied together and must be 10¢ to 90¢.
  • A win pays 100 ÷ price − 1; a loss is −1u. It loses as soon as a leg loses and wins when the last leg wins.
  • A void leg drops out and the combo is repriced; with one leg left it grades as that single. Every leg void is 0u.
  • Up to 15 combos count per caller per season week, each one of the 30 weekly calls and one toward qualifying. Combos cannot be closed early.
Season rules →How to post a combo →