WONPredictions · ComboCombo #150 · Season 2
Combo · 3 legs
51.81¢ · win pays +0.93u
Said · before resolutionOct 13, 2026 · timestamped in Discord
https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1109542 Manchester United to Win NO @ 73¢ https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1109539 Barcelona to Win YES @ 82¢ https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1109534 Arsenal to Win YES @ 78¢ Atlético at home makes the United pick interesting United don’t need to lose for the No selection to land, just fail to win. Barcelona have the stronger recent momentum, but Galatasaray at home can make this uncomfortable. Arsenal look the most convincing of the three on paper, although Lille can’t be dismissed outright. #NFA #COMBO
justfhlawlez. in #prediction-alpha-nfaOriginal message ↗ (opens in a new tab)
Entered · 3 legseach leg at the order-book ask when posted, or the caller’s stated price if that is worse
- Leg 1WonNo: Manchester United FC @ 78¢Club Atlético de Madrid v Manchester United FC
- Starts
- Entry
- 78¢ (the message said 73¢, below the ask: the worse price stands)
How it was priced
leg 1: event "Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Manchester United FC"; entry 78¢ from the order-book ask at post time (caller stated 73¢); entry checked against the trade tape: nothing traded inside 20s of the post - Result
- won · Oct 13, 2026
Verification details
gamma POLY-1109542 "Manchester United FC" outcome "No" price 0.9995 uma=proposed closed=false; resolution confirmed
- Leg 2WonFC Barcelona @ 82¢Galatasaray SK v FC Barcelona
- Starts
- Entry
- 82¢ (the price stated in the message, at or above the ask: the worse price stands)
How it was priced
leg 2: event "Galatasaray SK vs. FC Barcelona"; entry 77.5¢ from the market's own record at the post moment: the caller stated 82¢, which the tape does not support (it sat flat on 77.5¢ across the post), and a figure that existed nowhere binds nobody; entry checked against the trade tape: entry 77.5¢ -> 82¢, the tape paid 78¢ at the post moment, better than the caller's stated 82¢, and a call never pays more than the caller stated (13s before the post) - Result
- won · Oct 13, 2026
Verification details
gamma POLY-1109539 "FC Barcelona" outcome "Yes" price 0.9995 uma=proposed closed=false; resolution confirmed
- Leg 3WonArsenal FC @ 81¢Arsenal FC v Lille OSC
- Starts
- Entry
- 81¢ (the message said 78¢, below the ask: the worse price stands)
How it was priced
leg 3: event "Arsenal FC vs. Lille OSC"; entry 81¢ from the order-book ask at post time (caller stated 78¢); entry checked against the trade tape: nothing traded inside 20s of the post - Result
- won · Oct 13, 2026
Verification details
gamma POLY-1109534 "Arsenal FC" outcome "Yes" price 0.9995 uma=proposed closed=false; resolution confirmed
51.81¢
78¢ × 82¢ × 81¢ = 51.81¢; a win pays 100 ÷ 51.81 − 1 = +0.93u at a flat 1-unit stake, and a loss is −1u.
ResolvedOct 13, 2026 · market settlement
Won: every leg won. Settled by the markets’ official resolution.
+0.93uat a 1-unit stake (100 ÷ 51.81 − 1)
Verification details
won: every leg won (78¢ × 82¢ × 81¢ = 51.81¢, pays +0.93u)
Counts toward Season 2: combo 4 of 15 in week 2, one of the caller’s 30 calls that week.
How a combo scores
- One 1u position on 2 to 6 legs, each on a different fixture.
- Each leg is priced at the order-book ask when posted, or at the price the caller wrote if that is worse, and must be 10¢ to 90¢. The combo price is the legs multiplied together and must be 10¢ to 90¢.
- A win pays 100 ÷ price − 1; a loss is −1u. It loses as soon as a leg loses and wins when the last leg wins.
- A void leg drops out and the combo is repriced; with one leg left it grades as that single. Every leg void is 0u.
- Up to 15 combos count per caller per season week, each one of the 30 weekly calls and one toward qualifying. Combos cannot be closed early.