Following also starts a paper tail from now, when you are signed in: every call from then on, one virtual unit, graded as the call grades. Private, never counted.
Season 2From-zero season record (ended) · Oct 1 to Oct 31 · earlier calls (including Season 1) at the bottom · Season 1 record · Season 3 record
ProfitiEvery call risks 1 unit. A win at 40¢ pays +1.5 units, a loss is -1. This is the running total; a call closed early counts what it actually realized.
+0.03u
units · 3 priced calls
ROIiAverage profit per call, as a percent of the 1-unit stake. Staying positive over many calls is the skill signal; win rate alone is not. Beats the odds (3 calls): hit rate minus the hit rate the entry prices implied. Zero means the caller wins exactly as often as the market expected.
+1.1%
per call · vs odds needs 5 calls
RecordiWins and losses over graded calls. The sample size is always shown: a win rate only means something alongside it. The lower number is the 95% confidence floor on the win rate given the sample. It rises as the sample grows.
2–1
67% of 3 (at least 21%)
FormiMost recent graded calls, newest on the right. It reads the whole record, whatever the season, period or filter.
WLWW
W2 streak
Sport
Record
Units
ROI
Graded
Basketball3
2–1
+0.03u
+1%
3
Season equity curve
3 graded
Cumulative units over graded calls (flat 1u stake, a step per call; pending calls never move the curve).
Season record (4)
▸Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 11:30AM-11:45AM ETnot counted: rapid-cycle up/down market: excluded from Season 2 by the market-scope rule (a market that resolves every few minutes would let anyone fill the weekly cap with coin flips)Up @ 53¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)+89%win
“BTC Up or Down 15m 11:30 PM GMT Up 53¢ #nfa High volume and strong momentum show buyers firmly in control, and that pressure should carry into the next candle. https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1159642”
“Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics Celtics 64¢ #nfa Boston’s depth and three-point shooting make them tough to beat even when the starters sit. Philadelphia can keep it close, but the Celtics’ consistency and spacing should help them close it out. https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1127876”
“Sacramento Kings vs. Golden State Warriors Warriors 68¢ #nfa Golden State’s constant movement and ball sharing tend to carry over well even when minutes are managed. Sacramento can score in bunches, but the Warriors’ shot-making should hold up better as rotations deepen. https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1127877”
“Detroit Pistons vs. Washington Wizards Pistons 62¢ #nfa Detroit have the deeper and more physical rotation, which usually counts for a lot in preseason. Washington can stay close in spurts, but Detroit’s defensive intensity should give them the edge over four quarters. https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1127879”
