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Cumulative units over graded calls (flat 1u stake, a step per call; pending calls never move the curve).
GurkRising
@_gurk_ · every call recorded, losses included
Following also starts a paper tail from now, when you are signed in: every call from then on, one virtual unit, graded as the call grades. Private, never counted.
Season 2From-zero season record (ended) · Oct 1 to Oct 31 · earlier calls (including Season 1) at the bottom · Season 1 record · Season 3 record
ProfitEvery call risks 1 unit. A win at 40¢ pays +1.5 units, a loss is -1. This is the running total; a call closed early counts what it actually realized.
-0.77u
units · 4 priced calls
ROIAverage profit per call, as a percent of the 1-unit stake. Staying positive over many calls is the skill signal; win rate alone is not. Beats the odds (4 calls): hit rate minus the hit rate the entry prices implied. Zero means the caller wins exactly as often as the market expected.
-19.1%
per call · vs odds needs 5 calls
RecordWins and losses over graded calls. The sample size is always shown: a win rate only means something alongside it. The lower number is the 95% confidence floor on the win rate given the sample. It rises as the sample grows.
2–2
50% of 4 (at least 15%)
FormMost recent graded calls, newest on the right. It reads the whole record, whatever the season, period or filter.
WLWLW
W1 streak
| Sport | Record | Units | ROI | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Football2 | 1–1 | — | — | 2 · under 3 |
| Basketball1 | 1–0 | — | — | 1 · under 3 |
| Esports1 | 0–1 | — | — | 1 · under 3 |
Season equity curve
4 graded
Season record (4)
Rockets v HawksRockets @ 50¢Traded on JupiterMarket ↗ (opens in a new tab)+100%win
“Pick: Rockets Reasoning: I take Rockets at 50c, game history shows Rockets shows wins over Hawcks 2 of 2 times. they are also imo a better team. #nfa (submitted on community.jup.ag)”
- Posted
- Sat, 24 Oct 2026 23:02:25 UTC
- Outcome
- Won: the market resolved for Rockets.
LoL: Dplus KIA v T1 (BO1) - Worlds Group StageT1 @ 57¢Traded on JupiterMarket ↗ (opens in a new tab)-100%loss
“Pick: T1 Reasoning: T1 to win based on their match history and stats. T1 leads 7-3 against Dplus KIA past 12 months. They should statistically win the game #nfa (submitted on community.jup.ag)”
- Posted
- Sat, 24 Oct 2026 19:55:17 UTC
- Outcome
- Lost: the market resolved against this pick.
Aston Villa FC v Manchester City FCAston Villa FC @ 81¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)+23%win
“Pick - Aston Villa 81c i dont see how Aston Villa FC will lose this game, they been strong past games and is a good team. Took it at 35c but forgor to call 😭 #nfa #dyor #kyc https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1168495”
- Posted
- Sat, 24 Oct 2026 13:16:01 UTC
- Outcome
- Won: the market resolved for Aston Villa FC.
Bosnia and Herzegovina v SwedenSweden @ 39.5¢Traded on JupiterMarket ↗ (opens in a new tab)-100%loss
“Pick - Sweden (obviously) Sweden wont lose against Bosnia and Herzegovina, i have no other reason other than they just wont lose. (i got in at 48c, currently at 40c) #nfa #dyor #kyc https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-1047242”
- Posted
- Fri, 02 Oct 2026 14:10:15 UTC
- Outcome
- Lost: the market resolved against this pick.
Past calls (46)
Earlier calls, including Season 1: see the Season 1 record and the Hall of Fame. Calls after Season 2: the Season 3 record.
Ethereum Up or Down - September 8, 2:40PM-2:45PM ETUp @ 77¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)+30%win
“Pick - eth up 77c Reason - <:moon:896365677663907850> #nfa #dyor #kyc https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-984271”
- Posted
- Tue, 08 Sep 2026 18:43:35 UTC
- Outcome
- Won: the market resolved for Up.
CD Coquimbo Unido v CD HuachipatoCD Huachipato @ 75¢ → sold 64.5¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)-14%loss
“Pick - CD Huachipato 75c Reason - for the clanker #nfa #dyor #kyc https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-867018”
- Posted
- Tue, 01 Sep 2026 13:32:20 UTC
- Outcome
- Closed early by the caller at 64.5¢, -10.5¢ on the 75¢ entry.
Manacor: Moez Echargui v Jack Pinnington JonesJack Pinnington Jones @ 89.6¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)+12%win
“Pick - Jack Pinnington Jones 89.6c Reason - clanker take this #nfa #dyor #kyc https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-938850”
- Posted
- Tue, 01 Sep 2026 12:15:33 UTC
- Outcome
- Won: the market resolved for Jack Pinnington Jones.
Ethereum Up or Down - August 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ETUp @ 15¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)-100%loss
“Pick - Eth UP 15c Reason - faith (NFA) #nfa #dyor #kyc https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-905076”
- Posted
- Tue, 25 Aug 2026 16:57:02 UTC
- Outcome
- Lost: the market resolved against this pick.
Quebec City (Doubles): Blanchet/Jacquet v Jung/MaginleyBlanchet/Jacquet @ 89¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)+12%win
“Pick - Blanchet/Jacquet 89c Reason - <:HMCGoose:1407987275304013844> #nfa #dyor #kyc https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-870016”
- Posted
- Tue, 18 Aug 2026 21:42:00 UTC
- Outcome
- Won: the market resolved for Blanchet/Jacquet.
Cincinnati Open (Doubles): Bhambri/Venus v Pavlasek/RiklPavlasek/Rikl @ 89¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)+12%win
“Pick - Pavlasek/Rikl 89c Reason - <:HMCGoose:1407987275304013844> #nfa #dyor #kyc https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-868947”
- Posted
- Tue, 18 Aug 2026 21:41:26 UTC
- Outcome
- Won: the market resolved for Pavlasek/Rikl.
Kingston: Jay Clarke v Clement ChidekhJay Clarke @ 41.9¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)-100%loss
“Pick - Clark 41c Reason - <:hmm:1000845142586032138> #nfa #dyor #kyc https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-857581”
- Posted
- Tue, 18 Aug 2026 21:40:46 UTC
- Outcome
- Lost: the market resolved against this pick.
Kingston: Benjamin Willwerth v Gonzalo BuenoGonzalo Bueno @ 70¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)+43%win
“Pick - Bueno 70c Reason - <:HMCGoose:1407987275304013844> #nfa #dyor #kyc https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-857580”
- Posted
- Tue, 18 Aug 2026 21:38:59 UTC
- Outcome
- Won: the market resolved for Gonzalo Bueno.
Kingston: Lucas Da Silva v Tyler ZinkTyler Zink @ 81¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)+23%win
“Pick - Zink 84c Reason - <:HMCGoose:1407987275304013844> #nfa #dyor #kyc https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-868002”
- Posted
- Tue, 18 Aug 2026 21:38:24 UTC
- Outcome
- Won: the market resolved for Tyler Zink.
Counter-Strike: Vitality Academy v STATE (BO3) - European Pro League Regular PlayoffsSTATE @ 74¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)-100%loss
“Pick - State 77c Reason - <:PepeStonedCSRep:885386177736224788> #nfa #dyor #kyc https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-866921”
- Posted
- Tue, 18 Aug 2026 10:18:46 UTC
- Outcome
- Lost: the market resolved against this pick.
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers v Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Challenge GroupNongshim Esports Academy @ 81¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)-100%loss
“Pick - Nongshim 79c Reason - <:LOL:910808112800346172> #nfa #dyor #kyc https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-848825”
- Posted
- Tue, 18 Aug 2026 10:18:00 UTC
- Outcome
- Lost: the market resolved against this pick.
Sion: Dominic Stephan Stricker v Raphael PerotDominic Stephan Stricker @ 81¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)+23%win
“Pick - Stephan Stricker 80c Reason - 🎾 #nfa #dyor #kyc https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-856302”
- Posted
- Tue, 18 Aug 2026 10:16:32 UTC
- Outcome
- Won: the market resolved for Dominic Stephan Stricker.
Prague 2: Javier Barranco Cosano v Martin KrumichMartin Krumich @ 84¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)-100%loss
“Pick - Krumich 83c Reason - 🎾 #nfa #dyor #kyc https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-866081”
- Posted
- Tue, 18 Aug 2026 10:15:56 UTC
- Outcome
- Lost: the market resolved against this pick.
Roehampton: Fares Zakaria v Alex RybakovAlex Rybakov @ 84¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)+19%win
“Pick - Rybakov 86c Reason - 🎾 #nfa #dyor #kyc https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-856325”
- Posted
- Tue, 18 Aug 2026 10:15:02 UTC
- Outcome
- Won: the market resolved for Alex Rybakov.
Ethereum Up or Down - August 17, 4:15PM-4:30PM ETUp @ 83¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)+20%win
“Pick - eth up 72c Reason - <:moon:896365677663907850> #nfa #dyor #kyc https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-861480”
- Posted
- Mon, 17 Aug 2026 20:25:54 UTC
- Outcome
- Won: the market resolved for Up.
Valorant: G2 Gozen v Habos Babos (BO3) - VCT Game Changers EMEA PlayoffsG2 Gozen @ 75¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)+33%win
“Pick - G2 Gozen 76c Reason - tight game 1-1 now, i think G2 pulls trough #nfa #dyor #kyc https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-861036”
- Posted
- Mon, 17 Aug 2026 19:10:58 UTC
- Outcome
- Won: the market resolved for G2 Gozen.
Counter-Strike: maybe v Spirit Academy Green (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #8 Playoffsmaybe @ 79¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)+27%win
“Pick - maybe 81c Reason - <a:hmcookyell:1509626669340819507> #nfa #dyor #kyc https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-864156”
- Posted
- Mon, 17 Aug 2026 19:09:28 UTC
- Outcome
- Won: the market resolved for maybe.
Counter-Strike: Revise v FORZE Reload (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Closed Qualifier: Series #1 Play-InFORZE Reload @ 86¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)-100%loss
“Pick - FORZE 86c Reason - <:moon:896365677663907850> #nfa #dyor #kyc https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-861858”
- Posted
- Mon, 17 Aug 2026 19:07:54 UTC
- Outcome
- Lost: the market resolved against this pick.
Test Match: Sri Lanka v IndiaIndia @ 75¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)+33%win
“Pick - India 75c Reason - 🏏 #nfa #dyor #kyc https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-846545”
- Posted
- Mon, 17 Aug 2026 18:08:37 UTC
- Outcome
- Won: the market resolved for India.
Cincinnati Open: Alexander Blockx v Flavio CobolliAlexander Blockx @ 53¢ → sold 5.1¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)-90%loss
“Pick - Blockx 53c Reason - <:German_Pepe:924273135992336384> #nfa #dyor #kyc https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-856310”
- Posted
- Mon, 17 Aug 2026 16:47:02 UTC
- Outcome
- Closed early by the caller at 5.1¢, -47.9¢ on the 53¢ entry.
Ethereum Up or Down - August 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ETUp @ 77¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)+30%win
“Pick - Eth up 77c Reason - <:stonks:1336550601890467912> #nfa #dyor #kyc https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-859544”
- Posted
- Mon, 17 Aug 2026 14:33:25 UTC
- Outcome
- Won: the market resolved for Up.
Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante v Martin LandaluceThiago Agustin Tirante @ 59¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)+69%win
“Pick - Tirante 59c Reason - to jinx <@185593900507856896> #nfa #dyor #kyc https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-856331”
- Posted
- Mon, 17 Aug 2026 14:31:34 UTC
- Outcome
- Won: the market resolved for Thiago Agustin Tirante.
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming v SAW Youngsters (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series PlayoffsLPH Gaming @ 71¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)+41%win
“Pick - LPH 71c Reason - <:KRKuriThink:639090890614505472> #nfa #dyor #kyc https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-861154”
- Posted
- Mon, 17 Aug 2026 14:27:08 UTC
- Outcome
- Won: the market resolved for LPH Gaming.
Valorant: NPC Team v Looking For Laburo (BO5) - VCT Game Changers Latin America South Main Event PlayoffsLooking For Laburo @ 86¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)+16%win
“Pick - Looking For Laburo 86c Reason - <:moon:896365677663907850> #nfa #dyor #kyc https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-861935”
- Posted
- Mon, 17 Aug 2026 13:07:27 UTC
- Outcome
- Won: the market resolved for Looking For Laburo.
Bitcoin above ___ on August 17?yes 64k @ 16.7¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)+499%win
“Pick - yes 64k 16.7c Reason - <:moon:896365677663907850> #nfa #dyor #kyc https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-828453”
- Posted
- Mon, 17 Aug 2026 12:18:41 UTC
- Outcome
- Won: the market resolved for yes 64k.
Prague 2: Eduardo Ribeiro v Sumit NagalEduardo Ribeiro @ 40¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)-100%loss
“Pick - Ribeiro 40c Reason - 🎾 #nfa #dyor #kyc https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-856318”
- Posted
- Mon, 17 Aug 2026 11:59:40 UTC
- Outcome
- Lost: the market resolved against this pick.
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy v ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group Dex-Zero Tenacity @ 38¢ → sold 0.5¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)-99%loss
“Pick - ex-Zero 37c Reason - underdog #nfa #dyor #kyc https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-862435”
- Posted
- Mon, 17 Aug 2026 11:57:15 UTC
- Outcome
- Closed early by the caller at 0.5¢, -37.5¢ on the 38¢ entry.
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION v Vexar (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Closed Qualifier: Series #1 Play-InVexar @ 73¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)+37%win
“Pick - Vexar 79c Reason - <a:peepoBlushExcited:1124758847463096390> #nfa #dyor #kyc https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-861856”
- Posted
- Mon, 17 Aug 2026 11:53:59 UTC
- Outcome
- Won: the market resolved for Vexar.
Counter-Strike: ENCE v Esport BERG (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series PlayoffsENCE @ 89¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)+12%win
“Pick - ENCE 89c Reason - 🤺 #nfa #dyor #kyc https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-861153”
- Posted
- Mon, 17 Aug 2026 11:52:15 UTC
- Outcome
- Won: the market resolved for ENCE.
LoL: FlyQuest v Cloud9 (BO3) - LCS Regular SeasonCloud9 @ 83¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)+20%win
“Pick - Cloud9 86c Reason - ☁️ #nfa #dyor #kyc https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-828033”
- Posted
- Sun, 16 Aug 2026 21:19:36 UTC
- Outcome
- Won: the market resolved for Cloud9.
Colorado Rockies v San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants @ 76¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)-100%loss
“Pick - San Francisco 78c Reason - <a:aPES_Think:493353113332219924> #nfa #dyor #kyc https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-827616”
- Posted
- Sun, 16 Aug 2026 21:19:02 UTC
- Outcome
- Lost: the market resolved against this pick.
Kansas City Royals v Los Angeles AngelsKansas City Royals @ 85¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)+18%win
“Pick - Kansas 81c Reason - yes #nfa #dyor #kyc https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-827618”
- Posted
- Sun, 16 Aug 2026 21:18:15 UTC
- Outcome
- Won: the market resolved for Kansas City Royals.
Cincinnati Open: Ben Shelton v Jaime FariaBen Shelton @ 82¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)-100%loss
“Pick - Shelton 82c Reason - opposite of <@358391665293000704> #nfa #dyor #kyc https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-852044”
- Posted
- Sun, 16 Aug 2026 21:11:32 UTC
- Outcome
- Lost: the market resolved against this pick.
Frosinone Calcio v SS Juve StabiaFrosinone Calcio @ 75¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)+33%win
“Pick - Frosinone Calcio 75c Reason - Frosinone town ftw (i have no reason) #nfa #dyor #kyc https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-796136”
- Posted
- Sun, 16 Aug 2026 16:15:50 UTC
- Outcome
- Won: the market resolved for Frosinone Calcio.
Randers FC v FC KøbenhavnFC København @ 75.5¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)+32%win
“Pick - FC København 76 Reason - gut #nfa #dyor #kyc https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-787717”
- Posted
- Sun, 16 Aug 2026 16:13:41 UTC
- Outcome
- Won: the market resolved for FC København.
Cincinnati Open: Taylor Townsend v Elena RybakinaElena Rybakina @ 84.5¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)+18%win
“Pick - Rybakina 80 Reason - idfk #nfa #dyor #kyc https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-845786”
- Posted
- Sun, 16 Aug 2026 16:09:41 UTC
- Outcome
- Won: the market resolved for Elena Rybakina.
AFC Ajax v SC HeerenveenAFC Ajax @ 86¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)-100%loss
“Pick - Ajax 86c Reason - faith <:pain:1357015377699279049> #nfa #dyor #kyc https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-796344”
- Posted
- Sun, 16 Aug 2026 15:10:20 UTC
- Outcome
- Lost: the market resolved against this pick.
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports v UNiTY esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #7 Group CUNiTY esports @ 83¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)+20%win
“Pick - UNiTY 83c Reason - probability and history #nfa #dyor #kyc https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-854627”
- Posted
- Sun, 16 Aug 2026 15:08:28 UTC
- Outcome
- Won: the market resolved for UNiTY esports.
Counter-Strike: Honvéd v mellren (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffsmellren @ 86¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)+16%win
“Pick - mellren 86c Reason - probability and history #nfa #dyor #kyc https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-856247”
- Posted
- Sun, 16 Aug 2026 15:06:03 UTC
- Outcome
- Won: the market resolved for mellren.
LoL: LOUD v Leviatan Esports (BO3) - CBLOL Regular SeasonLOUD @ 89¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)+12%win
“https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-835657 I pick LOUD at 89c, probability say they will win #NFA”
- Posted
- Sun, 16 Aug 2026 14:24:29 UTC
- Outcome
- Won: the market resolved for LOUD.
LoL: Disguised v Team Liquid (BO3) - LCS Regular SeasonTeam Liquid -1.5 games @ 90¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)+11%win
“https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-828017 I'm picking Liquid -1.5 at 90c, idk what im doing #NFA”
- Posted
- Sat, 15 Aug 2026 20:57:26 UTC
- Outcome
- Won: the market resolved for Team Liquid -1.5 games.
Ethereum Up or Down - August 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ETDown @ 99.8¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)+0%win
“#NFA https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-826925 down 100% sure”
- Posted
- Tue, 11 Aug 2026 10:44:17 UTC
- Outcome
- Won: the market resolved for Down.
FIFA WC ’26 — United States v BosniaUnited StatesMarket ↗ (opens in a new tab)win
“# NFA i dont want too, USA to win”
- Posted
- Wed, 01 Jul 2026 23:38:59 UTC
- Outcome
- Won: the market resolved for United States.
Wimbledon ATP — Brooksby v BuseIgnacio Buse @ 40¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)-100%loss
“Taking Buse at 40 cents. 🔥”
- Posted
- Wed, 01 Jul 2026 10:09:17 UTC
- Outcome
- Lost: the market resolved against this pick.
FIFA WC ’26 — Germany v ParaguayGermany @ 48¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)-100%loss
“and thats why i bet on germany once paraguay scores”
- Posted
- Mon, 29 Jun 2026 21:51:07 UTC
- Outcome
- Lost: the market resolved against this pick.
FIFA WC ’26 — Germany v Côte d’IvoireCôte d’Ivoire @ 16¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)-100%loss
“CIV TO WIN”
- Posted
- Sat, 20 Jun 2026 20:03:11 UTC
- Outcome
- Lost: the market resolved against this pick.