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baldleaderfrReturning: called in Season 2
@baldleaderfr · every call recorded, losses included
Season 3From-zero season record · Nov 1 to Nov 30 · earlier calls (including Season 2) at the bottom · Season 2 record
This week: 0 of 30 calls · 0 of 15 combos · resets Thursday 00:00 UTC (a pending call holds its slot)
ProfitEvery call risks 1 unit. A win at 40¢ pays +1.5 units, a loss is -1. This is the running total; a call closed early counts what it actually realized.
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units · 0 priced calls
ROIAverage profit per call, as a percent of the 1-unit stake. Staying positive over many calls is the skill signal; win rate alone is not. Beats the odds (0 calls): hit rate minus the hit rate the entry prices implied. Zero means the caller wins exactly as often as the market expected.
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per call · vs odds needs 5 calls
RecordWins and losses over graded calls. The sample size is always shown: a win rate only means something alongside it. The lower number is the 95% confidence floor on the win rate given the sample. It rises as the sample grows.
0–0
none graded
FormMost recent graded calls, newest on the right. It reads the whole record, whatever the season, period or filter.
W
W1 streak
Season equity curve
0 graded
The curve starts with the first graded call.
Season record (0)
No graded season calls yet. The record starts with the first graded call.
Past calls (1)
Earlier calls, including Season 2: see the Season 2 record and the Hall of Fame.
Fed Decision in October?No change yes @ 84¢Market ↗ (opens in a new tab)+19%win
“POLITICS no change Fed rate cut in October 2026 seems unlikely, with rates more likely to remain unchanged or potentially rise depending on inflation and jobs data #nfa https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-606422”
- Posted
- Sat, 10 Oct 2026 21:05:30 UTC
- Outcome
- Won: the market resolved for No change yes.