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Methodology

How a message becomes a call, how a call is priced, and how it is graded.
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What counts as a call

  • A message in #prediction-alpha-nfa tagged #nfa by its author. The tag is the caller’s explicit opt-in; untagged messages are never listed, however confident they sound.
  • The tag may sit in the caller’s own adjacent message within 5 minutes (link, pick, and tag split across messages is fine).
  • The side must be stated in a recognizable form. A jup.ag market link pins the exact market; without one, the system searches Jupiter for the single active market the side belongs to (an “X vs Y” phrase must match the event, and exactly one candidate may survive). Zero or multiple candidates go to review, never guessed.
  • The entry is the ask on the Jupiter order book at the message’s own timestamp, the price the buy button charges, not the midpoint between bid and ask. The two are far apart on a thin market, and the midpoint is not tradeable. A price written in the message is kept on the receipt and noted when it diverges; it never overrides the market. The order book cannot be replayed after the fact, so a call the system reads long after it was posted (the backup feed, or a rescue from the review queue) falls back to the midpoint and the receipt says exactly that.
  • A call posted after its outcome is already settled does not board. The price graph is a five-minute grid of midpoints and lags the book, so for a few minutes after an event turns it still shows the old price; the live book is checked instead, and anything already decided goes to review rather than onto the board.
  • One call per (message, market, side).

Identity

Callers are identified by Discord account id, not by name. Usernames and display names change; the id doesn’t. Attribution is mechanical: the account that posted the message owns the call.

Grading

  • Positions closed early grade on realized PnL, entry to exit. A call the market later resolved against can still be a win if the caller exited in profit, and vice versa. To close a position, post #close as a reply to your original call, or naming the side. The exit price is the contract price at the moment you posted (from the order book’s minute history, not when the bot got around to reading it): above entry grades win, below grades loss, dead-equal voids. If it is ambiguous which open call you meant, it goes to review instead of guessing.
  • No hindsight: a call is never graded from an outcome that was already decided when the message was posted.
  • Grading follows official market resolution with a 48-hour dispute window after grading. Upheld disputes are corrected and published like every other correction.

Scoring

  • Flat 1-unit stake per call. A loss is −1u. A win pays implied odds: entry 40¢ returns +1.5u, entry 80¢ returns +0.25u. Backing favorites can lose money at a high win rate; that is the point.
  • Profit (units) ranks the board. ROI (average return per priced call) is the skill signal. Win rate is always shown with its sample size and never ranks anything.
  • The priced sample is symmetric: only calls with a captured entry count toward units, wins and losses alike.
  • Ranked requires 10 graded calls; until then a caller is Rising (visible but unranked, because hiding small samples invites survivorship bias).
  • Pending calls don’t count until graded.

Coverage

All #nfa-tagged messages in #prediction-alpha-nfa are captured continuously. Absence of a call means it wasn’t tagged or didn’t parse. Open positions can be closed early by posting #close (as a reply to the original call, or naming the side): the exit is priced at the moment the #close was posted, and the call grades on realized PnL instead of waiting for resolution.